{ "protocol_commit": "1129ec7", "baseline_source": "af2741fd22a391a1af4cb468d2d05feda31b9db4", "scope": "Constructed simulation faults; no field-performance claim", "before": { "pack_sha256": "6eb4c2fbbb0db0ae8479a1eea3127f6f2486a6f48fe5e335c70f795f4ae88814", "cases": 24, "true_failures": 12, "true_successes": 12, "false_confirmations": 6, "false_confirmation_rate": 0.5, "missed_recoveries": 0, "missed_recovery_rate": 0.0, "abstentions": 4, "abstention_rate": 0.16666666666666666, "expected_verdict_matches": 16, "rows": [ { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/stuck_hiding_failure", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.0, 6.0, 6.0 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/honest_constant", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.0, 6.0, 6.0 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/stale_recovery", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 81, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.922, 6.921, 6.92 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/compressed_tail", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 3, "final_temperatures_c": [ 7.0, 6.9, 6.8 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/healthy_drift", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.088, 6.089, 6.09 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/continued_warming", "truth": "failed", "expected": "failed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "failed", "detail": "3 of the last 3 readings are outside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 9.2, 9.225, 9.25 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/lying_nonconstant", "truth": "failed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "known_blind_spot", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.088, 6.089, 6.09 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/freshness_at_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 89, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.086, 6.087, 6.088 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/freshness_over_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 88, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.085, 6.086, 6.087 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/quantized_healthy", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.0, 6.1, 6.0 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/no_data", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "no cargo temperature readings between 2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00 and 2026-10-21T01:30:00+00:00; absence of data is not evidence of recovery", "observed": { "reading_count": 0 } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/boundary", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 7.9, 8.0, 7.8 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ] } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/stuck_hiding_failure", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0000 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.0, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/honest_constant", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0000 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.0, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/stale_recovery", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "81 readings spanning 80.0 of the 90 minute window; a trend over that window needs at least 85.5 minutes of it covered", "observed": { "reading_count": 81, "span_minutes": 80.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/compressed_tail", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "3 readings spanning 0.0 of the 90 minute window; a trend over that window needs at least 85.5 minutes of it covered", "observed": { "reading_count": 3, "span_minutes": 0.02, "required_span_minutes": 85.5 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/healthy_drift", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0010 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/continued_warming", "truth": "failed", "expected": "failed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "failed", "detail": "cargo temperature is still rising at 0.0250 C/min, above the 0.01 C/min a healthy trailer stays under", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.025, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/lying_nonconstant", "truth": "failed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "known_blind_spot", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0010 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/freshness_at_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0010 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 89, "span_minutes": 88.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/freshness_over_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0010 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 88, "span_minutes": 87.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/quantized_healthy", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0000 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.0, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/no_data", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "no cargo temperature readings between 2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00 and 2026-10-21T01:30:00+00:00; absence of data is not evidence of recovery", "observed": { "reading_count": 0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/boundary", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0000 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 2.4e-05, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01 } } ], "original_recorded_pack_sha256": "424186c905df517636b5fddcc2f4afd526839ed39f57e43ef64d5882ce3dd8f6", "pack_hash_method": "utf8_lf_bytes_sha256" }, "after": { "pack_sha256": "6eb4c2fbbb0db0ae8479a1eea3127f6f2486a6f48fe5e335c70f795f4ae88814", "cases": 24, "true_failures": 12, "true_successes": 12, "false_confirmations": 2, "false_confirmation_rate": 0.16666666666666666, "missed_recoveries": 4, "missed_recovery_rate": 0.3333333333333333, "abstentions": 12, "abstention_rate": 0.5, "expected_verdict_matches": 24, "rows": [ { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/stuck_hiding_failure", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "constant single-channel readings cannot distinguish steady recovery from a stuck sensor", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.0, 6.0, 6.0 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0, "abstention_reason": "constant_trace_ambiguity" } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/honest_constant", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "constant single-channel readings cannot distinguish steady recovery from a stuck sensor", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.0, 6.0, 6.0 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0, "abstention_reason": "constant_trace_ambiguity" } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/stale_recovery", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "readings are stale at the verification deadline; current outcome is unknown", "observed": { "reading_count": 81, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.922, 6.921, 6.92 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 10.0, "abstention_reason": "stale_at_deadline" } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/compressed_tail", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "recovery samples are too close together to establish the required hold", "observed": { "reading_count": 3, "hold_minutes": 0.02, "abstention_reason": "compressed_recovery_hold" } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/healthy_drift", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.088, 6.089, 6.09 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/continued_warming", "truth": "failed", "expected": "failed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "failed", "detail": "3 of the last 3 readings are outside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 9.2, 9.225, 9.25 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/lying_nonconstant", "truth": "failed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "known_blind_spot", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.088, 6.089, 6.09 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/freshness_at_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 89, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.086, 6.087, 6.088 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 2.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/freshness_over_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "readings are stale at the verification deadline; current outcome is unknown", "observed": { "reading_count": 88, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.085, 6.086, 6.087 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 3.0, "abstention_reason": "stale_at_deadline" } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/quantized_healthy", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 6.0, 6.1, 6.0 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/no_data", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "no cargo temperature readings between 2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00 and 2026-10-21T01:30:00+00:00; absence of data is not evidence of recovery", "observed": { "reading_count": 0 } }, { "id": "temperature_within_envelope/boundary", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "the last 3 readings are inside [2, 8] C", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "final_temperatures_c": [ 7.9, 8.0, 7.8 ], "envelope_c": [ 2, 8 ], "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/stuck_hiding_failure", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "constant single-channel readings cannot distinguish steady recovery from a stuck sensor", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.0, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0, "abstention_reason": "constant_trace_ambiguity" } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/honest_constant", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "constant single-channel readings cannot distinguish steady recovery from a stuck sensor", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.0, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0, "abstention_reason": "constant_trace_ambiguity" } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/stale_recovery", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "81 readings spanning 80.0 of the 90 minute window; a trend over that window needs at least 85.5 minutes of it covered", "observed": { "reading_count": 81, "span_minutes": 80.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/compressed_tail", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "3 readings spanning 0.0 of the 90 minute window; a trend over that window needs at least 85.5 minutes of it covered", "observed": { "reading_count": 3, "span_minutes": 0.02, "required_span_minutes": 85.5 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/healthy_drift", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0010 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/continued_warming", "truth": "failed", "expected": "failed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "failed", "detail": "cargo temperature is still rising at 0.0250 C/min, above the 0.01 C/min a healthy trailer stays under", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.025, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/lying_nonconstant", "truth": "failed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "known_blind_spot", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0010 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/freshness_at_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0010 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 89, "span_minutes": 88.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 2.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/freshness_over_limit", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "abstention_cost", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "readings are stale at the verification deadline; current outcome is unknown", "observed": { "reading_count": 88, "span_minutes": 87.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.001, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 3.0, "abstention_reason": "stale_at_deadline" } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/quantized_healthy", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0000 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 0.0, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/no_data", "truth": "failed", "expected": "inconclusive", "group": "target_fault", "verdict": "inconclusive", "detail": "no cargo temperature readings between 2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00 and 2026-10-21T01:30:00+00:00; absence of data is not evidence of recovery", "observed": { "reading_count": 0 } }, { "id": "temperature_stops_rising/boundary", "truth": "confirmed", "expected": "confirmed", "group": "honest_control", "verdict": "confirmed", "detail": "cargo temperature gradient is 0.0000 C/min, at or below the 0.01 C/min threshold", "observed": { "reading_count": 91, "span_minutes": 90.0, "required_span_minutes": 85.5, "slope_c_per_min": 2.4e-05, "threshold_c_per_min": 0.01, "final_reading_age_minutes": 0.0 } } ], "original_recorded_pack_sha256": "424186c905df517636b5fddcc2f4afd526839ed39f57e43ef64d5882ce3dd8f6", "pack_hash_method": "utf8_lf_bytes_sha256" }, "historical_regression": { "baseline": { "excluded": 20, "baseline": { "agreement": 0.94, "false_confirmations": 3.0, "false_confirmation_rate": 0.09090909090909091, "missed_recoveries": 3.0, "inconclusive": 0.0, "truly_worked": 67.0, "honest_sensor_agreement": 1.0, "lying_sensor_agreement": 0.5, "lying_sensor_trajectories": 12.0, "excluded_window_past_end": 20, "agreement_contact_driver": 0.9411764705882353, "agreement_reroute_to_cold_storage": 0.9705882352941176, "agreement_trailer_swap": 0.90625 }, "truth": { "ambient_heat_pharma_01/reroute_to_cold_storage": "confirmed", "ambient_heat_pharma_01/trailer_swap": "failed", "ambient_heat_pharma_01/contact_driver": "failed", "ambient_heat_pharma_02/reroute_to_cold_storage": "confirmed", "ambient_heat_pharma_02/trailer_swap": "failed", "ambient_heat_pharma_02/contact_driver": "failed", "ambient_heat_pharma_03/reroute_to_cold_storage": "confirmed", "ambient_heat_pharma_03/trailer_swap": "failed", "ambient_heat_pharma_03/contact_driver": "failed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_01/reroute_to_cold_storage": "confirmed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_01/trailer_swap": "failed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_01/contact_driver": "failed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_02/reroute_to_cold_storage": "confirmed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_02/trailer_swap": "confirmed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_02/contact_driver": "failed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_03/reroute_to_cold_storage": "confirmed", "ambient_heat_vaccine_03/contact_driver": "confirmed", "compressor_degradation_frozen_01/reroute_to_cold_storage": "confirmed", "compressor_degradation_frozen_01/trailer_swap": "confirmed", 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